A mathematical model and forecast for the coronavirus disease COVID-19 in Ukraine (М4)
(A.B. Alyokhin, B.V. Burkynskyi, A.N. Grabovoi, V.A, Dilenko, N.I. Khumarova)
07/10/2020. No F-224.
Today we published the results of assessing the forecast accuracy of the COVID-19 epidemic development in Ukraine, developed using our main M1 model for a 10-day period from September 28 to October 7, 2020, as well as for a lead-time period of 30 days (https: // www .facebook.com / ab.alyokhin / posts / 186173379692232). The accuracy of this forecast is so high that there is no need to refine the model parameters and perform new calculations. We will simply continue to monitor the implementation of this forecast.
Nevertheless, we take this opportunity to present a new 10-day forecast for the period from October 8 to October 17, 2020, developed using a new, 4th, model based on statistics inclusive October 7. This is the first publication of the M4 forecast.
The results of forecast calculations are showing in Fig. 1–13.
In fig. 1–4 displayed:
- actual trajectories of the main cumulative indicators of the COVID-19 epidemic in Ukraine for the entire observation period;
- calculated trajectories of the same indicators for the forecast period;
- confidence intervals of the forecasts indicated with a confidence level of 95%.
Diagrams Fig. 5–8 reflect:
- actual trajectories of the main daily indicators of the COVID-19 epidemic in Ukraine for the entire observation period.
- calculated trajectories of these indicators for the forecast period.
- confidence intervals of the forecasts with a confidence level of 70%.
The diagrams in Fig. 9–13 depicts:
- actual trajectories of the main synthetic indicators of the epidemic (statistical reproductive number, average absolute increase in infected, mortality rate I (TC), lethality rate I (CC), progress indicator IP) for the entire observation period;
- calculated trajectories of these indicators for a 10-day forecast period.
As follows from the diagrams, forecast calculations provide for the preservation of the negative trends in the development of the COVID-19 epidemic in Ukraine for the near (10-day) perspective.
Sources of statistical data:
Our materials also:
Accuracy of our forecasts:
Publications on case fatality rates and progress indicator