A mathematical model and forecast for the coronavirus disease COVID-19 in Ukraine (М4)

4 min readOct 14, 2020

(A.B. Alyokhin, B.V. Burkynskyi, A.N. Grabovoi, V.A, Dilenko, N.I. Khumarova)

Forecast Monitor

14/10/2020. No F-234.

https://www.facebook.com/ab.alyokhin

Today at first time, we publish the accuracy assessing results of the first forecast of COVID-19 epidemic in Ukraine development, worked out using new (experimental) model M4, which compiled for a 10-day period from October 8 to October 17, 2020 and published on 7-th of October 2020 (https://www.facebook.com/ab.alyokhin/posts/187115229598047)

The results of accuracy evaluating of the 7-day component of the M14 forecast presented in table. 1–2 and fig. 1–13.

Table 1 shows the calculated and actual values of the main indicators of the COVID-19 epidemic in Ukraine for a 7-day forecast period. The absolute and relative errors of daily forecasts, as well as the average absolute error MAE and the average absolute error in percent MAPE, including the same MAPE * estimate on an accrual basis , the forecast as a whole.

Table 2 shows the same data for case fatality rates I (TC), I (CC) and the IP progress indicator.

Average absolute percentage errors (MAPE estimates *) for the main indicators of the COVID-19 epidemic in Ukraine are at the following level:

- total number of infected — 0.43%;

- total number of deaths — 1.13%;

- total number of recovered — 0.87%;

- number of active cases — 1.38%.

The errors in forecasting the most important derived indicators of the COVID-19 epidemic in Ukraine (MAPE * estimates) are as shown in Table. 2:

- mortality rate I (TC) — 0.71%;

- mortality rate I (CC) — 1.84%;

- IP progress indicator — 1.16%,

These data indicate that the accuracy of the M4 forecast is quite comparable to the accuracy of the developed using other models of the COVID-19 epidemic.

Visually, the degree of correspondence of statistical and forecast data allows you to evaluate the diagrams in Fig. 1–13.

In fig. 1–4 displayed:

- actual trajectories of the main cumulative indicators of the COVID-19 epidemic in Ukraine for the entire observation period;

- calculated trajectories of the same indicators for a 10-day forecast period;

- confidence intervals of the forecasts indicated with a confidence level of 95%.

Diagrams Fig. 5–8 reflect:

- actual trajectories of the main daily indicators of the COVID-19 epidemic in Ukraine for the entire observation period.

- calculated trajectories of these indicators for a 10-day forecast period.

- confidence intervals of the forecasts indicated with a confidence level of 95%.

The diagrams in Fig. 9–13 depicts:

- actual trajectories of the main synthetic indicators of the epidemic (statistical reproductive number, average absolute increase in infected, mortality rate I (TC), lethality rate I (CC), progress indicator IP) for the entire observation period;

- calculated trajectories of these indicators for a 10-day forecast period.

As follows from the diagrams, over the past week the situation with the number of deaths (Fig. 2, Fig. 6) and recovered (Fig. 3, Fig. 7) has worsened relative to the forecast. As a result, the number of active cases increased (above the forecasted values) (Fig. 4, Fig. 8).

The mortality index I (CC) resumed its growth (Fig. 12), having reached the level of 4.20% today. At the same time, the world average level is 3.64%. In such conditions, only the Minister of Health can afford to regular declaring that Ukraine has one of the lowest mortality rates from COVID-19.

Based on the data above, we have to admit that the negative trends of the COVID-19 epidemic development in Ukraine over the past 7 days have only worsened.

Sources of statistical data:

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries

https://covid19.rnbo.gov.ua/

Our materials also:

https://www.facebook.com/MATHMODELCOVID19

https://t.me/mathmodelcovid19

Accuracy of our forecasts:

https://www.facebook.com/ab.alyokhin/posts/154698732839697 (Germany)

https://www.facebook.com/ab.alyokhin/posts/142548897388014 (Spain)

https://www.facebook.com/ab.alyokhin/posts/150095069966730 (Italy)

https://www.facebook.com/ab.alyokhin/posts/148450556797848 (USA)

https://www.facebook.com/ab.alyokhin/posts/154364292873141 (Ukraine)