A mathematical model and forecast for the coronavirus disease COVID-19 in Ukraine (М3)
(A.B. Alyokhin, B.V. Burkynskyi, A.N. Grabovoi, V.A, Dilenko, N.I. Khumarova)
11/10/2020. No F-230.
We continue to develop forecasts of the COVID-19 epidemic in Ukraine using an experimental model of weekly cycles (model M3) and present another weekly forecast for the period from October 12 to 18, 2020.
The results of forecast calculations are showing in Fig. 1–12.
In fig. 1–4 displayed:
- actual trajectories of the main cumulative indicators of the COVID-19 epidemic in Ukraine for the entire observation period;
- calculated trajectories of the same indicators for a 7-day forecast period.
Diagrams Fig. 5–8 reflect:
- actual trajectories of the main daily indicators of the COVID-19 epidemic in Ukraine for the entire observation period.
- calculated trajectories of these indicators for the entire forecast period.
The diagrams in Fig. 9–12 show:
- actual trajectories of the main synthetic indicators of the epidemic (the average absolute increase in the number of infected, the case fatality rate I (TC), the case fatality rate I (CC), the IP progress indicator) for the entire observation period;
- calculated trajectories of these indicators for a 7-day forecast period.
Like all our recent forecasts for Ukraine, this forecast also does not contain signs of an improvement in the epidemiological situation in Ukraine. Thus proving the obvious fact that this situation cannot be changed with the help of only forecasts.
Sources of statistical data:
Our materials also:
Accuracy of our forecasts:
Publications on case fatality rates and progress indicator