A mathematical model and forecast for the coronavirus disease COVID-19 in Ukraine (М3)
05/10/2020. No F-220.
The forecast of the COVID-19 epidemic development in Ukraine first developed using model M3, compiled according to statistical data inclusive September 27 for the period from September 28 to October 4, was published on September 27, 2020 ( see https://www.facebook.com/ab.alyokhin/posts/184383933204510).
This is the author’s statistical model of weekly cycles, developed for short-term forecasting of the COVID-19 epidemic in Ukraine with a weekly lead period as an alternative to our other models. It focused on identifying and extrapolating trends in the daily indicators of the epidemic, which are the most variable and therefore represent the most difficult objects for forecasting.
The results of the analysis of the accuracy of the 7-day forecast, compiled using this model, are showing in table. 1–2 and fig. 1–12.
Table 1 shows the calculated and actual values of the main indicators of the COVID-19 epidemic in Ukraine for a 7-day forecast period. The absolute and relative errors of daily forecasts, as well as the average absolute error MAE and the average absolute error in percent MAPE, including the same MAPE * estimate on an accrual basis, the forecast as a whole.
Table 2 shows the same data for case fatality rates I (TC), I (CC) and the IP progress indicator.
The average absolute percentage errors (MAPE * estimates) of the forecast for the main indicators of the epidemic are at the following level:
- total number of infected people — 0.66%;
- total number of deaths — 0.21%;
- total number of recovered — 0.43%.
The errors in forecasting the most important derived indicators of the COVID-19 epidemic in Ukraine (MAPE * estimates) are at the following level (see Table 2):
- mortality rate I (TC) — 0.77%;
- mortality rate I (CC) — 0.27%;
- IP progress indicator — 1.05%,
Visually, the accuracy of forecasting the main indicators of the epidemic can assessed using the diagrams in Fig. 1–12. On all charts, the forecast trajectories of the forecasted indicators for the 7-day period marked in dark blue, and the trajectories of the actual values of the same indicators shown in red.
Fig. 1–4 show the actual and calculated trajectories of the main cumulative indicators of the COVID-19 epidemic in Ukraine for the entire observation period, including the 7-day forecast period.
Diagrams Fig. 5–8 reflect the actual and calculated trajectories of the main daily indicators of the COVID-19 epidemic in Ukraine for the entire observation period, including the forecast period.
Diagrams Fig. 9–12 reflect the actual and calculated trajectories of synthetic indicators of the epidemic for the entire observation period, including the 7-day forecast period:
- average absolute increase in the number of infected;
- lethality rate I (TC);
- lethality rate I (CC);
- IP progress indicator.
As the tables and diagrams show, the forecast accuracy developed using the new model is quite satisfactory. At the same time, there is potential for improving this forecasting technique. In this regard, we will continue to use this model to predict the COVID-19 epidemic in Ukraine with a weekly cycle, studying and expanding its capabilities.
Sources of statistical data:
Our materials also:
Accuracy of our forecasts:
Publications on case fatality rates and progress indicator