A mathematical model and forecast for the coronavirus disease COVID-19 in Ukraine (М3)

(A.B. Alyokhin, B.V. Burkynskyi, A.N. Grabovoi, V.A, Dilenko, N.I. Khumarova)

Forecast Monitor

19/10/2020. No F-240.

https://www.facebook.com/ab.alyokhin

In addition to the M2 and M4 forecasts published yesterday (https://www.facebook.com/ab.alyokhin/posts/190256805950556), today we present a 7-day forecast for M3 for the same period from October 19th to 25th 2020

The results of forecasts calculations are showing in Fig. 1–12.

In fig. 1–4 displayed:

- actual trajectories of the main cumulative indicators of the COVID-19 epidemic in Ukraine for the entire observation period;

- calculated trajectories of the same indicators for a 7-day forecast period.

Diagrams Fig. 5–8 reflect:

- actual trajectories of the main daily indicators of the COVID-19 epidemic in Ukraine for the entire observation period.

- calculated trajectories of these indicators for a 7-day forecast period.

The diagrams in Fig. 9–12 show:

- actual trajectories of the main synthetic indicators of the epidemic (the average absolute increase in the number of infected, the case fatality rate I (TC), the case fatality rate I (CC), the IP progress indicator) for the entire observation period;

- calculated trajectories of these indicators for a 7-day forecast period.

Like the forecasts M2 and M4, this forecast also does not imply a change in the epidemiological situation in Ukraine for the better.

Sources of statistical data:

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries

https://covid19.rnbo.gov.ua/

Our materials also:

https://www.facebook.com/MATHMODELCOVID19

https://t.me/mathmodelcovid19

Accuracy of our forecasts:

https://www.facebook.com/ab.alyokhin/posts/154698732839697 (Germany)

https://www.facebook.com/ab.alyokhin/posts/142548897388014 (Spain)

https://www.facebook.com/ab.alyokhin/posts/150095069966730 (Italy)

https://www.facebook.com/ab.alyokhin/posts/148450556797848 (USA)

https://www.facebook.com/ab.alyokhin/posts/154364292873141 (Ukraine)

https://www.facebook.com/ab.alyokhin/posts/144983953811175 (France)

https://www.facebook.com/ab.alyokhin/posts/152284093081161 (South Korea)

Publications on case fatality rates and progress indicator

https://www.facebook.com/ab.alyokhin/posts/105684827741088

https://www.facebook.com/ab.alyokhin/posts/106831140959790

https://www.facebook.com/ab.alyokhin/posts/107444734231764