A mathematical model and forecast for the coronavirus disease COVID-19 in Ukraine (М3)
(A.B. Alyokhin, B.V. Burkynskyi, A.N. Grabovoi, V.A, Dilenko, N.I. Khumarova)
Forecast Monitor
19/10/2020. No F-240.
https://www.facebook.com/ab.alyokhin
In addition to the M2 and M4 forecasts published yesterday (https://www.facebook.com/ab.alyokhin/posts/190256805950556), today we present a 7-day forecast for M3 for the same period from October 19th to 25th 2020
The results of forecasts calculations are showing in Fig. 1–12.
In fig. 1–4 displayed:
- actual trajectories of the main cumulative indicators of the COVID-19 epidemic in Ukraine for the entire observation period;
- calculated trajectories of the same indicators for a 7-day forecast period.
Diagrams Fig. 5–8 reflect:
- actual trajectories of the main daily indicators of the COVID-19 epidemic in Ukraine for the entire observation period.
- calculated trajectories of these indicators for a 7-day forecast period.
The diagrams in Fig. 9–12 show:
- actual trajectories of the main synthetic indicators of the epidemic (the average absolute increase in the number of infected, the case fatality rate I (TC), the case fatality rate I (CC), the IP progress indicator) for the entire observation period;
- calculated trajectories of these indicators for a 7-day forecast period.
Like the forecasts M2 and M4, this forecast also does not imply a change in the epidemiological situation in Ukraine for the better.
Sources of statistical data:
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries
Our materials also:
https://www.facebook.com/MATHMODELCOVID19
Accuracy of our forecasts:
https://www.facebook.com/ab.alyokhin/posts/154698732839697 (Germany)
https://www.facebook.com/ab.alyokhin/posts/142548897388014 (Spain)
https://www.facebook.com/ab.alyokhin/posts/150095069966730 (Italy)
https://www.facebook.com/ab.alyokhin/posts/148450556797848 (USA)
https://www.facebook.com/ab.alyokhin/posts/154364292873141 (Ukraine)
https://www.facebook.com/ab.alyokhin/posts/144983953811175 (France)
https://www.facebook.com/ab.alyokhin/posts/152284093081161 (South Korea)
Publications on case fatality rates and progress indicator
https://www.facebook.com/ab.alyokhin/posts/105684827741088