A mathematical model and forecast for the coronavirus disease COVID-19 in Ukraine (М2)

5 min readSep 8, 2020

(A.B. Alyokhin, B.V. Burkynskyi, A.N. Grabovoi, V.A, Dilenko, N.I. Khumarova)

Forecast Monitor

08/09/2020. No F-179

https://www.facebook.com/ab.alyokhin/posts/179062353736668

The forecast M2 of the COVID-19 coronavirus epidemic development in Ukraine, compiled according to statistical data until September 1 inclusive for the period from September 2 to 11, was published on September 1, 2020 (see https: // www. facebook.com/ab.alyokhin/posts/177124967263740).

Today the base 7-day forecast period has expired and there is a possibility of a first assessment of its accuracy. The results of the analysis forecast accuracy, as well as the degree of its compliance with the actual data given in table. 1–2 and fig. 1–13.

Table 1 shows the calculated and actual values of the main indicators of the COVID-19 coronavirus epidemic in Ukraine for the 7-day forecast period. The absolute and relative errors of daily forecasts, as well as the average absolute error of MAE and the average absolute error in percentage of MAPE, including the same estimate of MAPE * growing the result, the forecast as a whole.

Table 2 shows the same data for case fatality rates I (TC), I (CC) and the IP progress indicator.

As follows from these tables, the average absolute percentage errors (MAPE * estimates) of the 7-day forecast for the main indicators of the epidemic are, despite the next anti-record week in Ukraine, at a very good level:

- total number of infected people — 1.34%;

- total number of deaths — 0.93%;

- total number of recovered people — 1.41%;

- number of active cases — 1.29%.

This time, the accuracy of forecasting total number of deaths was higher than the accuracy of other indicators. This suggests that an extremely negative trend in this segment already fully formed.

Forecast errors of the most important derived indicators of the coronavirus epidemic in Ukraine (MAPE * estimates), as shown in table. 2 are low as ever:

- mortality rate I (TC) — 0.43%;

- mortality rate I (CC) — 0.47%;

- IP progress indicator — 0.13%,

This is a sad testament to how the high growth rate of the infected well balanced with the high growth rate of the death toll.

Visually, the accuracy of forecasting the main indicators of the epidemic can assessed using the diagrams in Fig. 1–13. On all charts, the forecast trajectories of the forecast indicators for a 10-day period are marked in dark blue, and the trajectories of the actual values of the same indicators are red.

In fig. 1–4 are given:

- actual trajectories of the main indicators of the coronavirus epidemic in Ukraine for the entire observation period, including the forecast period;

- calculated trajectories of these indicators for a 10-day forecast period;

- boundaries of confidence intervals (ranges of possible deviations of a point 10-day forecast with a significance level of p = 0.05) of the forecast

In these charts, confidence intervals are omitting due to their overlap with key indicator charts.

Diagrams Fig. 5–8 reflect:

- actual trajectories of changes in daily indicators of the coronavirus epidemic in Ukraine for the entire observation period, including the forecast period;

- calculated trajectories of these indicators for a 10-day forecast period;

- boundaries of the confidence intervals (p = 0.05), corresponding to the 10-day forecast.

As these diagrams show, the variability of daily indicators is very high, but fluctuations carried out mainly around model trends. This is also one of the evidences of the identifying accuracy and accounting for the trends in the country.

Diagrams Fig. 9–13 reflect:

- actual trajectories of the statistical reproductive number SR0 and the average absolute (daily) increase in infected indicators over the entire observation period, including the 7-day forecast period;

- actual trajectories of these indicators for the same period;

- calculated trajectories of the indicated indicators for a 10-day forecast period.

As we have already noted above, we have not yet achieved such a high forecasting accuracy of these indicators. In addition, the “merit” for this does not belong to us. The coronavirus and the citizens of our country have tried of this. Those who had to be supposed to prevent the favorable attitude of ordinary citizens to the coronavirus did not try it at all. Otherwise, their efforts would certainly be reflecting in statistics and presented graphs.

Sources of statistical data:

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries

https://covid19.rnbo.gov.ua/

https://www.pravda.com.ua/cdn/covid-19/cpa/

Our materials also:

https://www.facebook.com/MATHMODELCOVID19

https://t.me/mathmodelcovid19

Accuracy of our forecasts:

https://www.facebook.com/ab.alyokhin/posts/154698732839697 (Germany)

https://www.facebook.com/ab.alyokhin/posts/142548897388014 (Spain)

https://www.facebook.com/ab.alyokhin/posts/150095069966730 (Italy)

https://www.facebook.com/ab.alyokhin/posts/148450556797848 (USA)