A mathematical model and forecast for the coronavirus disease COVID-19 in the World
(A.B. Alyokhin, B.V. Burkynskyi, A.N. Grabovoi, V.A, Dilenko, N.I. Khumarova)
28/08/2020. No F-160.
Today we publish another forecast of the COVID-19 coronavirus pandemic development in the world with a lead of 10 days for the period from August 28 to September 6, 2020. When making the forecast, statistical data used for August 27 inclusive.
The results of predictive calculations based on data for the entire observation period by our working group (WG) are showing in the diagrams in Fig. 1–13.
The diagrams in Fig. 1–4 indicate:
- actual trajectories of the main indicators of the coronavirus pandemic;
- calculated trajectories of these indicators for a lead period of 10 days;
- boundaries (upper UCL, lower LCL) of confidence intervals (ranges of possible deviations of the point forecast with a significance level of p = 0.05).
The diagrams in Fig. 1–2 boundaries of confidence intervals hidden due to their narrowness and overlap with the forecasted trajectories.
As follows from these charts, the main forecast provides further active spread of the coronavirus, while some of the stabilization trends that have emerged earlier consolidated.
So, the diagrams in Fig. 5–8 reflect:
- actual trajectories of changes in the daily indicators of the coronavirus pandemic over the entire observation period of the RG;
- calculated trajectories of these indicators for the forecast period;
- boundaries of the confidence intervals of the forecast (p = 0.05),
and indicate that the prognosis assumes maintaining a stable level of daily increments of infected (Fig. 5) and deaths (Fig. 6), a slight increase in the number of recovered (Fig. 7) and a decrease in active cases (Fig. 8).
As you know, daily indicators, due to their significant variability due to the complexity of the forecasted processes, are an extremely difficult object to forecast. This explains both the wide confidence intervals for the forecasts indicators and the relatively high probability of forecast errors.
Diagrams Fig. 9–10, which reflect:
- actual trajectories of the statistical reproductive number R0 and the average absolute increase in the total number of infected people over the entire observation period of the RG;
- calculated trajectories of the specified indicators for the forecasting period,
also confirm the ongoing (in the forecast perspective) expansion of the pandemic at a relatively constant rate.
This is evidencing by the forecast trajectories of other synthetic indicators of the pandemic, which are showing in the diagrams in Fig. 11–13. It:
- actual trajectories of lethality indicators I (TC), I (CC) and the IP progress indicator for the entire observation period of the WG;
- calculated trajectories of the indicated indicators for the forecasting period.
Note that in expanding epidemics, the level of the IP progress indicator (Fig. 13) usually increases due to a certain excess of the number of recovered by the number of infected, with a high level of both indicators, which indicates the low quality of such growth.
Sources of statistical data:
Our materials also:
Accuracy of our forecasts:
Publications on case fatality rates and progress indicator