A mathematical model and forecast for the coronavirus disease COVID-19 in the World

3 min readSep 17, 2020

(A.B. Alyokhin, B.V. Burkynskyi, A.N. Grabovoi, V.A, Dilenko, N.I. Khumarova)

Forecast Monitor

17/09/2020. No F-193.

https://www.facebook.com/ab.alyokhin/posts/181544310155139

This monitor contains another forecast of the COVID-19 coronavirus pandemic development in the world with a 10-day lead for the period from September 17 to September 26, 2020. Making the forecast, statistical data used inclusive September 16.

Since today the results of the analysis of the previous forecast were published with a brief description of the trends in the development of the Coronavirus Pandemic in the world (see https://www.facebook.com/ab.alyokhin/posts/181533640156206), in this monitor we will limit ourselves only to brief comments on the presented diagrams …

The results of predictive calculations are showing in the diagrams in Fig. 1–13.

The diagrams in Fig. 1–4 indicate:

- actual trajectories of the main indicators of the coronavirus pandemic;

- calculated trajectories of these indicators for a lead period of 10 days;

- boundaries (upper UCL, lower LCL) of confidence intervals (ranges of possible deviations of a point forecast with a significance level of p = 0.05).

The diagrams in Fig. 1–3 boundaries of confidence intervals hidden due to their imposition on the forecast trajectories.

Diagrams Fig. 5–8 reflect:

- actual trajectories of changes in the daily indicators of the coronavirus pandemic over the entire observation period of the RG;

- calculated trajectories of these indicators for the forecasting period;

- boundaries of the forecast confidence intervals (p = 0.05).

The diagrams in Fig. 9–10 presented:

- actual trajectories of the statistical reproductive number R0 and the average absolute increase in the total number of infected people over the entire observation period of the RG;

- calculated trajectories of the indicated indicators for the forecasting period.

The diagrams in Fig. 11–13 are given:

- actual trajectories of lethality indicators I (TC), I (CC) and the IP progress indicator for the entire observation period of the WG;

- calculated trajectories of the indicated indicators for the forecasting period.

The forecast trajectories of all the indicators presented above indicate the continuation of the recent trends in the world in the forecast perspective, which so far do not give any promises to reduce the activity of the coronavirus and the rate of its spread.

Sources of statistical data:

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries

Our materials also:

https://www.facebook.com/MATHMODELCOVID19

https://t.me/mathmodelcovid19

Accuracy of our forecasts:

https://www.facebook.com/ab.alyokhin/posts/154698732839697 (Germany)

https://www.facebook.com/ab.alyokhin/posts/142548897388014 (Spain)

https://www.facebook.com/ab.alyokhin/posts/150095069966730 (Italy)

https://www.facebook.com/ab.alyokhin/posts/148450556797848 (USA)

https://www.facebook.com/ab.alyokhin/posts/154364292873141 (Ukraine)

https://www.facebook.com/ab.alyokhin/posts/144983953811175 (France)