A mathematical model and forecast for the coronavirus disease COVID-19 in the World
(A.B. Alyokhin, B.V. Burkynskyi, A.N. Grabovoi, V.A, Dilenko, N.I. Khumarova)
Forecast Monitor
07/09/2020. No F-176
https://www.facebook.com/ab.alyokhin/posts/178745917101645
This monitor presents a new forecast of the COVID-19 coronavirus pandemic development in the world with a lead of 10 days for the period from September 7 to 16, 2020. Making the forecast used statistical data including September 6.
Because of the analysis results of the previous forecast with a brief description of the Coronavirus Pandemic trends development in the world have just published (see https://www.facebook.com/ab.alyokhin/posts/178729533769950), in this monitor we will restrict ourselves to minimal comments of the graphic material …
The results of forecast calculations based on data for the entire observation period by our working group (WG) are showing in the diagrams in Fig. 1–13.
The diagrams in Fig. 1–4 indicate:
- trajectories of the main indicators of the coronavirus pandemic;
- calculated trajectories of these indicators for a lead period of 10 days;
- boundaries (upper UCL, lower LCL) of confidence intervals (ranges of possible deviations of a point forecast with a significance level of p = 0.05).
The diagrams in Fig. 1–2 boundaries of confidence intervals hidden due to their imposition on the forecasted trajectories.
Diagrams Fig. 5–8 reflect:
- actual trajectories of changes in the daily indicators of the coronavirus pandemic over the entire observation period of the RG;
- calculated trajectories of these indicators for the forecast period;
- boundaries of the forecast confidence intervals (p = 0.05).
The diagrams in Fig. 9–10 presented:
- actual trajectories of the statistical reproductive number R0 and the average absolute increase in the total number of infected people over the entire observation period of the RG;
- calculated trajectories of the indicated indicators for the forecasting period.
The diagrams in Fig. 11–13 are given:
- actual trajectories of lethality indicators I (TC), I (CC) and the IP progress indicator for the entire observation period of the WG;
- calculated trajectories of the indicated indicators for the forecasting period.
The forecast trajectories of all the indicators presented above indicate the continuation in the near future of the still not positive trends that have developed in recent weeks.
Sources of statistical data:
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries
Our materials also:
https://www.facebook.com/MATHMODELCOVID19
Accuracy of our forecasts:
https://www.facebook.com/ab.alyokhin/posts/154698732839697 (Germany)
https://www.facebook.com/ab.alyokhin/posts/142548897388014 (Spain)
https://www.facebook.com/ab.alyokhin/posts/150095069966730 (Italy)
https://www.facebook.com/ab.alyokhin/posts/148450556797848 (USA)
https://www.facebook.com/ab.alyokhin/posts/154364292873141 (Ukraine)
https://www.facebook.com/ab.alyokhin/posts/144983953811175 (France)
https://www.facebook.com/ab.alyokhin/posts/152284093081161 (South Korea)
Publications on case fatality rates and progress indicator
https://www.facebook.com/ab.alyokhin/posts/105684827741088