A mathematical model and forecast for the coronavirus disease COVID-19 in the USA

4 min readSep 9, 2020

(A.B. Alyokhin, B.V. Burkynskyi, A.N. Grabovoi, V.A, Dilenko, N.I. Khumarova)

Forecast Monitor

09/09/2020. No F-181

https://www.facebook.com/ab.alyokhin/posts/179441480365422

Today, after another long pause, we again present a forecast of the COVID-19 coronavirus epidemic development in the United States for the period from September 9 to September 18, 2020. Making the forecast, we used statistical data inclusive September 8.

The pause caused by frequent retrospective updates of the US coronavirus epidemic in our main source (see link at the end of the monitor). This forced have to check a correct our entire database for the United States before another forecast and, at end, forced us to stop doing this insignificant activity.

So, we did not even assess the accuracy of the previous forecast, compiled and published on August 16 for the period from August 16 to August 25, 2020 (We, however, intend to return to the assessment of this forecast.)

At the same time, the United States has made some progress in reducing the spread of infection. Therefore, despite the unpredictability of the statistical coronavirus history of the United States, we are ready to present a forecast of the epidemic development in this country. At the same time, we are aware that the accuracy of our forecast may change over time (as opposed to the forecast itself) due to retroactive changes in statistical data, based on which our forecasts can be re-evaluated later. It is just as funny as it is sad, but it is just the way.

The results of forecast calculations based on statistical data for the entire observation period by our working group (WG) are showing in Fig. 1–12. Our US databases for the past decade revised to date. Even in such a short period, there was many changes in statistical data.

The diagrams in Fig. 1–4 indicate:

- actual trajectories of the main indicators of the coronavirus epidemic in the United States;

- calculated trajectories of these indicators for a lead period of 10 days;

- boundaries (upper UCL, lower LCL) confidence intervals (ranges of possible deviations of the point forecast with a significance level of p = 0.05).

Already these diagrams show signs of a slowdown in the spread of infection and positive shifts in the dynamics of other indicators.

Diagrams Fig. 5–8 reflect:

- actual trajectories of changes in the daily indicators of the coronavirus pandemic over the entire observation period of the RG;

- calculated trajectories of these indicators for the forecast period;

- boundaries of the forecast confidence intervals (p = 0.05).

These charts already clearly indicate significant progress in recent times. The forecast picks up these trends and extrapolates their positive for the near future.

Diagrams Fig. 9–12 reflect:

- actual trajectories of lethality indicators I (TC), I (CC), statistical reproductive number SR0 and IP progress indicator for the entire observation period of the WG;

- calculated trajectories of the indicated indicators for the forecasting period.

These synthetic indicators, which are of a cumulative nature, are still reacting with restraint to new trends, demonstrating the long-term stability of general trends.

Sources of statistical data:

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries

Our materials also:

https://www.facebook.com/MATHMODELCOVID19

https://t.me/mathmodelcovid19

Accuracy of our forecasts:

https://www.facebook.com/ab.alyokhin/posts/154698732839697 (Germany)

https://www.facebook.com/ab.alyokhin/posts/142548897388014 (Spain)

https://www.facebook.com/ab.alyokhin/posts/150095069966730 (Italy)

https://www.facebook.com/ab.alyokhin/posts/148450556797848 (USA)

https://www.facebook.com/ab.alyokhin/posts/154364292873141 (Ukraine)

https://www.facebook.com/ab.alyokhin/posts/144983953811175 (France)