A mathematical model and forecast for the coronavirus disease COVID-19 in Russia

(A.B. Alyokhin, B.V. Burkynskyi, A.N. Grabovoi, V.A, Dilenko, N.I. Khumarova)

Forecast Monitor

01/09/2020. No F-169

https://www.facebook.com/ab.alyokhin/posts/177169953925908

Today we present another forecast for the development of the COVID-19 coronavirus epidemic in Russia, prepared according to statistical data until August 31 inclusive, with a 10-day advance for the period from September 1 to September 10, 2020.

The main results of forecast calculations are showing in the diagrams in Fig. 1–12.

The diagrams in Fig. 1–4 indicate:

- actual trajectories of the main indicators of the coronavirus epidemic in Russia;

- calculated trajectories of these indicators for a lead period of 10 days;

- boundaries (upper — UCL, lower — LCL) of confidence intervals of forecasts (ranges of possible deviations of a point forecast with a significance level of p = 0.05).

From the forecasted dynamics of the cumulative indicators of the epidemic, there follows a slight slowdown in the growth of the number of recovered (Fig. 3) and, as a consequence, an increase in the number of active cases (Fig. 4).

The diagrams in Fig. 5–8 are given:

- actual trajectories of changes in the daily indicators of the coronavirus epidemic in Russia over the entire observation period;

- calculated trajectories of these indicators for the forecasting period;

- boundaries of the forecast confidence intervals (p = 0.05).

These charts indicate the expected stabilization of the new infections number after a long period of decline (Fig. 5), the cessation of the decline in the number of deaths (Fig. 6), the continuation of the downward trend in the daily number of recovered cases (Fig. 7) and the stabilization of the increase in the number of active cases (Fig. 8). All of these show that there are not positive changes.

Diagrams Fig. 9–10 contain:

- actual trajectories of lethality indicators I (TC) and I (CC) for the entire observation period;

- calculated trajectories of the specified indicators for the forecasting period for a 10-day forecast period.

The diagrams in Fig. 11–12 are presenting:

- actual trajectories of the statistical reproductive number SR0 and the IP progress indicator;

- calculated trajectories of the indicated indicators for a forecasting period of 10 days.

The diagrams in Fig. 9–11 show the fixed consolidation of current trends. The diagram in Fig. 12 (progress indicator) show some outlined from the rollback in positions reached.

Thus, forecast calculations show a fairly active spread of coronavirus in the country, and some fluctuations in the rates of certain indicators change are not of a fundamental nature, which could significantly trends change in the development of the epidemic in Russia in the near future.

Sources of statistical data:

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries

Our materials also:

https://www.facebook.com/MATHMODELCOVID19

https://t.me/mathmodelcovid19

Accuracy of our forecasts:

https://www.facebook.com/ab.alyokhin/posts/154698732839697 (Germany)

https://www.facebook.com/ab.alyokhin/posts/142548897388014 (Spain)

https://www.facebook.com/ab.alyokhin/posts/150095069966730 (Italy)

https://www.facebook.com/ab.alyokhin/posts/148450556797848 (USA)

https://www.facebook.com/ab.alyokhin/posts/154364292873141 (Ukraine)

https://www.facebook.com/ab.alyokhin/posts/144983953811175 (France)

https://www.facebook.com/ab.alyokhin/posts/152284093081161 (South Korea)

Publications on case fatality rates and progress indicator

https://www.facebook.com/ab.alyokhin/posts/105684827741088

https://www.facebook.com/ab.alyokhin/posts/106831140959790

https://www.facebook.com/ab.alyokhin/posts/107444734231764

Official page of the state scientific institution Institute of Market Problems and Economic-Ecological Research of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine