A mathematical model and forecast for the coronavirus disease COVID-19 in Russia

(A.B. Alyokhin, B.V. Burkynskyi, A.N. Grabovoi, N.I. Khumarova)

Forecast Monitor

14/12/2020. No F-283.

https://www.facebook.com/ab.alyokhin/posts/218001516509418

This monitor dedicated to next forecast presentation of the COVID-19 epidemic development in Russia for the period from December 14 to 7 (main forecast) and 28 (rough forecast) days according to statistical data through December 13.

The main results of forecast calculations are showing in the diagrams in Fig. 1–12.

Fig. 1–4 indicate:

- actual trajectories of the main indicators of the COVID-19 epidemic in Russia for the entire observation period;

- calculated trajectories of these indicators for a lead period of 28 days;

- boundaries (upper — UCL, lower — LCL) of confidence intervals of forecasts (ranges of possible deviations of a point forecast with a significance level of p = 0.05).

The diagrams in Fig. 5–8 are given:

- actual trajectories of changes in the daily indicators of the COVID-19 epidemic in Russia over the entire observation period;

- calculated trajectories of these indicators for the entire forecasting period;

- boundaries of the confidence intervals of the 28-day forecast (p = 0.05).

Diagrams Fig. 9–12 contain:

- actual trajectories of lethality indicators I (TC), I (CC), statistical reproductive number SR0 and IP progress indicator for the entire observation period;

- calculated trajectories of the indicators for a 28-day forecasting period.

As follows from the diagrams above, the forecast assumes the consolidation of the trends that have emerged in the last weeks of the pre-forecast period. In addition, first, some stabilization of the daily increase in the recovered (Fig. 7) and an increase in the number of active cases (Fig. 8).

In general, the forecast assumes the preservation of the negative nature of the COVID-19 epidemic development in Russia. Such situation indicates that the authorities and citizens of the country poorly control epidemiological processes.

Sources of statistical data:

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries

Our materials also:

https://www.facebook.com/MATHMODELCOVID19

https://t.me/mathmodelcovid19

Accuracy of our forecasts:

https://www.facebook.com/ab.alyokhin/posts/154698732839697 (Germany)

https://www.facebook.com/ab.alyokhin/posts/142548897388014 (Spain)

https://www.facebook.com/ab.alyokhin/posts/150095069966730 (Italy)

https://www.facebook.com/ab.alyokhin/posts/148450556797848 (USA)

https://www.facebook.com/ab.alyokhin/posts/154364292873141 (Ukraine)

https://www.facebook.com/ab.alyokhin/posts/144983953811175 (France)

https://www.facebook.com/ab.alyokhin/posts/152284093081161 (South Korea)

Publications on case fatality rates and progress indicator

https://www.facebook.com/ab.alyokhin/posts/105684827741088

https://www.facebook.com/ab.alyokhin/posts/106831140959790

https://www.facebook.com/ab.alyokhin/posts/107444734231764

Official page of the state scientific institution Institute of Market Problems and Economic-Ecological Research of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine