A mathematical model and forecast for the coronavirus disease COVID-19 in Russia
(A.B. Alyokhin, B.V. Burkynskyi, A.N. Grabovoi, V.A, Dilenko, N.I. Khumarova)
21/09/2020. No F-200.
Exactly 6 months ago, on March 21, 2020, we began daily publishing of our statistical and forecast monitors of COVID-19 coronavirus epidemic status and development in various countries in the world. During this time, the following became obvious to us.
1. Our understanding of the patterns of the COVID-19 coronavirus epidemic development, our ability to forecast the course of this process has noticeably changed for the better.
2. The SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus turned out to be a worthy adversary, which easily picks up where ignorance, lack of will, unprofessionalism, criminal inactivity, and lack of morality dominate. As a result, the other day the UN Secretary General forced to admit that the coronavirus pandemic is out of control.
3. The embryonic state of consciousness of citizens (and society as a whole), who, unlike other representatives of the animal world, have lost their instinct for self-preservation. A similar (embryonic) state of mind in humanity does not allow compensating for this loss. Thus, the term “Homo sapiens” is for the time being an advance (in case of a favorable development of this phenomenon in the future), and not a statement of an accomplished fact.
4. The modern state as an institution is immoral in its essence. It easily and without a twinge of conscience follows the path of assessing the economic feasibility of saving the health and lives of its citizens and makes decisions based on the principle of economic feasibility. Where it is incapable of either managing the economy or ensuring the protection of its citizens, it, clinging to power, hides the true state of affairs, relying on the circumstances mentioned in paragraph 3.
5. The COVID-19 coronavirus pandemic has revealed these circumstances, their depth and scale with frightening evidence.
All this indicates that our initiative, which began to implemented six months ago, was correct and has not lost its relevance.
Therefore, we present the next, anniversary 200th, forecast monitor of the COVID-19 coronavirus epidemic development in Russia, prepared according to statistical data inclusive September 20, with a 10-day advance for the period from September 21 to September 30, 2020 with the hidden hope that the reality will be more encouraging.
The main results of forecast calculations are showing in the diagrams in Fig. 1–12.
The diagrams in Fig. 1–4 indicate:
- actual trajectories of the main indicators of the coronavirus epidemic in Russia;
- calculated trajectories of these indicators for a lead period of 10 days;
- boundaries (upper — UCL, lower — LCL) of confidence intervals of forecasts (ranges of possible deviations of a point forecast with a significance level of p = 0.05).
In Fig. 1, the boundaries of the confidence interval hidden due to their imposition on the main graphs.
The diagrams in Fig. 5–8 are given:
- actual trajectories of changes in the daily indicators of the coronavirus epidemic in Russia over the entire observation period;
- calculated trajectories of these indicators for the forecasting period;
- boundaries of the forecast confidence intervals (p = 0.05).
From the diagrams in Fig. 1–8 it follows that the forecast assumes only a slight acceleration in the growth of the number of new infected (trend of recent days, Fig. 1), while other trends persist.
Diagrams Fig. 9–10 contain:
- actual trajectories of lethality indicators I (TC) and I (CC) for the entire observation period;
- calculated trajectories of the indicated indicators for the forecasting period for a 10-day forecast period.
The diagrams in Fig. 11–12 presented:
- actual trajectories of the statistical reproductive number SR0 and the IP progress indicator;
- calculated trajectories of the indicated indicators for a forecasting period of 10 days.
These diagrams also indicate that the trends prevailing at the time of making the forecast persist in the forecast perspective.
In general, this forecast, like the previous one, is negative and does not predict any positive shifts in the patterns of the spread of coronavirus in Russia. Only the authorities and citizens of this country can do this (if they exist and are willing to use them).
Sources of statistical data:
Our materials also:
Accuracy of our forecasts:
Publications on case fatality rates and progress indicator