A mathematical model and forecast for the coronavirus disease COVID-19 in Russia
(A.B. Alyokhin, B.V. Burkynskyi, A.N. Grabovoi, V.A, Dilenko, N.I. Khumarova)
26/10/2020. No F-247.
This monitor presents the next forecast of the COVID-19 epidemic development in Russia for the period from October 26 to 7 (basic forecast) and 28 (approximate forecast) days according to statistics inclusive October 25.
The main results of forecast calculations are showing in the diagrams in Fig. 1–12.
Fig. 1–4 indicate:
- actual trajectories of the main indicators of the COVID-19 epidemic in Russia for the entire observation period;
- calculated trajectories of these indicators for a lead period of 28 days;
- boundaries (upper — UCL, lower — LCL) of confidence intervals of forecasts (ranges of possible deviations of a point forecast with a significance level of p = 0.05).
The diagrams in Fig. 5–8 are given:
- actual trajectories of changes in the daily indicators of the COVID-19 epidemic in Russia over the entire observation period;
- calculated trajectories of these indicators for the entire forecasting period;
- the boundaries of the confidence intervals of the 28-day forecast (p = 0.05).
Diagrams Fig. 9–12 contain:
- actual trajectories of lethality indicators I (TC), I (CC), statistical reproductive number SR0 and IP progress indicator for the entire observation period;
- calculated trajectories of the indicators for a 28-day forecasting period.
As you can see, this forecast assumes the strengthening of the trends outlined in the pre-forecast period (see our previous monitor https://www.facebook.com/ab.alyokhin/posts/192476899061880).
In particular, a further decrease in the rate of growth in the number of new infections expected (Fig. 5), an increase in the number of recovered patients (Fig. 7) and a decrease in the increase in the number of active cases (Fig. 8). At the same time, the tendency of an increase in the number of deaths remains (Fig. 6), which also recorded by the forecasted dynamics of the mortality index (Fig. 10). The forecasted stabilization of the progress indicator (Fig. 12), unfortunately, achieved not by a decrease in the number of new infected, but by an increase in the number of closed cases due to recovered and deaths.
In general, the forecast corresponds to the negative nature of the poorly controlled development of the COVID-19 epidemic in Russia without signs of qualitative changes for the better.
Sources of statistical data:
Our materials also:
Accuracy of our forecasts:
Publications on case fatality rates and progress indicator