A mathematical model and forecast for the coronavirus disease COVID-19 in Russia

(A.B. Alyokhin, B.V. Burkynskyi, A.N. Grabovoi, V.A, Dilenko, N.I. Khumarova)

Forecast Monitor

20/10/2020. No F-242.

https://www.facebook.com/ab.alyokhin/posts/191110592531844

This monitor devoted results of the accuracy assessing of the 7-day and 10-day components of the 28-day forecast of the COVID-19 epidemic in Russia, compiled according to statistical data up to October 10 for 7 and 28 days, starting from October 11, 2020 (see https://www.facebook.com/ab.alyokhin/posts/188106629498907).

Due to the transition from 10-day to weekly forecasting, we unwittingly missed accuracy assessing of this forecast based on the results of the first week of its implementation. In this regard, in today’s monitor, we present estimates accuracy for both 7 and 10 days, i.e. until today.

The results of a quantitative accuracy analysis and degree of compliance with the actual forecast data of October 10 given in table. 1–2.

Table 1 shows the calculated and actual values of the main indicators of the COVID-19 epidemic in Russia for the 10-day forecast period. The absolute and relative errors of daily forecasts, as well as the average absolute error of MAE and the average absolute error in percent of the MAPE of the forecast as a whole, including the same increase total (MAPE *).

Table 2 shows the same data for case fatality rates I (TC), I (CC) and the IP progress indicator.

In both tables, estimates for 7 and 10 days highlighted in red.

As shown in the table. 1, the accuracy of the weekly (7-day) forecast is very high.

The mean absolute percentage errors (MAPE) for the main indicators of the epidemic are at the following level:

- total number of infected — 0.04%;

- total number of deaths — 0.31%;

- total number of recovered — 0.22%;

- number of active cases — 0.73%.

The accuracy of forecasting derived (synthetic) indicators of the COVID-19 epidemic in Russia, such as the mortality indices I (TC), I (CC) and the IP progress indicator, is also very high. The MAPE estimates for these indicators are at the following level (Table 2):

- mortality rate I (TC) — 0.30%;

- mortality rate I (CC) — 0.10%;

- IP progress indicator — 0.20%;

The accuracy of the same forecast for the first 10 days is already somewhat lower.

- total number of infected people — 0.05%;

- total number of deaths — 0.52%;

- total number of recovered — 0.42%;

- number of active cases — 1.54%.

- mortality rate I (TC) — 0.540%;

- mortality rate I (CC) — 0.11%;

- IP progress indicator — 0.42%;

The reasons for a slight decrease in forecast accuracy by the end of the decade indicated by the diagrams in Fig. 1–12.

Fig. 1–4 indicate:

- actual trajectories of the main indicators of the coronavirus epidemic in Russia for the entire observation period;

- calculated trajectories of these indicators for the entire (28-day) forecast period;

- boundaries of the forecast confidence intervals (p = 0.05).

The diagrams in Fig. 5–8 presented:

- actual trajectories of changes in the daily indicators of the COVID-19 epidemic in Russia over the entire observation period;

- calculated trajectories of these indicators for the forecast period;

- boundaries of the forecast confidence intervals (p = 0.05).

As can be seen from these diagrams, the forecast level exceeded by the daily increase in deaths (Fig. 6) and recovered (Fig. 7). Because of it, there is a slower than forecast increase in active cases (Fig. 8).

Diagrams Fig. 9–12 reflect:

- actual trajectories of lethality indicators I (TC) and I (CC), statistical reproductive number SR0 and IP progress indicator for the entire observation period;

- calculated trajectories of the indicated indicators for the entire 28-day forecast period /

These synthetic indicators reacted poorly to the marked deviations of daily indicators, remaining in close proximity to the forecasted values.

The high accuracy of the forecast indicates that in Russia over the past 10 days was not possible to reverse the negative trends in the spread of coronavirus, and the trend in the death curve (Fig. 6) worsened even more.

Sources of statistical data:

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries

Our materials also:

https://www.facebook.com/MATHMODELCOVID19

https://t.me/mathmodelcovid19

Accuracy of our forecasts:

https://www.facebook.com/ab.alyokhin/posts/154698732839697 (Germany)

https://www.facebook.com/ab.alyokhin/posts/142548897388014 (Spain)

https://www.facebook.com/ab.alyokhin/posts/150095069966730 (Italy)

https://www.facebook.com/ab.alyokhin/posts/148450556797848 (USA)

https://www.facebook.com/ab.alyokhin/posts/154364292873141 (Ukraine)

https://www.facebook.com/ab.alyokhin/posts/144983953811175 (France)

https://www.facebook.com/ab.alyokhin/posts/152284093081161 (South Korea)

Publications on case fatality rates and progress indicator

https://www.facebook.com/ab.alyokhin/posts/105684827741088

https://www.facebook.com/ab.alyokhin/posts/106831140959790

https://www.facebook.com/ab.alyokhin/posts/107444734231764

Official page of the state scientific institution Institute of Market Problems and Economic-Ecological Research of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine