A mathematical model and forecast for the coronavirus disease COVID-19 in Russia

4 min readJul 23, 2020

(A.B. Alyokhin, B.V. Burkynskyi, A.N. Grabovoi, V.A, Dilenko, N.I. Khumarova)

Forecast Monitor

07/22/2020. No 115.

https://www.facebook.com/ab.alyokhin/posts/164746355168268

Today we publish a forecast of the development of the COVID-19 coronavirus epidemic in Russia, prepared according to statistical data up to July 21 inclusive, with a 10-day advance for the period from July 22 to July 31, 2020.

Such a long break in forecasting the epidemic in this country was due to the uncertainty in the reliability of statistical data, their in different monitoring systems and changes in the databases after the fact. Since our group is currently testing another version of the forecasting model, such forecasts, taking into account the circumstances noted above, should be considered as approximate.

The results of forecast calculations are shown in the diagrams in Fig. 1–12.

The diagrams in Fig. 1–4 indicate:

- actual trajectories of the main indicators of the coronavirus epidemic in Russia;

- calculated trajectories of these indicators for a lead period of 10 days;

- boundaries (upper — UCL, lower — LCL) confidence intervals (ranges of possible deviations of a point forecast with a significance level of p = 0.05).

It follows from these diagrams that forecasts predict a continuation of the recent growth trends in the total number of infected, dead and recovered, as well as a slight decrease in the number of active patients.

Diagrams Fig. 5–8 reflects:

- actual trajectories of changes in the daily indicators of the coronavirus epidemic in Russia for the entire observation period;

- calculated trajectories of these indicators for the period of the 10-day forecast;

- boundaries of the confidence intervals (p = 0.05), corresponding to the 10-day forecast.

As usual, we note that daily indicators, due to their significant variability due to the complexity of the predicted processes, are an extremely difficult object to predict. This explains both the wide confidence intervals for the forecasts of these indicators, and the relatively high probability of forecast errors.

These charts explain the continued growth of the cumulative indicators discussed above. Indeed, the stabilization of the level of the main daily indicators, this is primarily the number of deaths, recovered and active patients with a slight decrease in the number of infected, together provides a relative constancy of the growth of cumulative indicators (Fig. 1–3) and a weak downward trend in the number of active cases (Fig. 4).

Diagrams Fig. 9–10 reflects:

- actual trajectories of lethality indicators I (TC) and I (CC) for the entire observation period;

- calculated trajectories of the specified indicators of the 10-day forecasting period.

The mortality rate in Russia, as follows from these diagrams, is quite stable and very low (1.6% — 2.2%).

The diagrams in Fig. 11–12 are presented:

- actual trajectories of the reproductive number R0 and the IP progress indicator;

- calculated trajectories of the indicated indicators of 10 days forecasting period.

The reproductive number R0 (Fig. 11), which characterizes the potential for the spread of infection, fluctuates around the level of 1.00, which also indicates that the epidemic is still in its development stage and does not in any way go into a decay phase.

The dynamics of the progress indicator in Russia (Fig. 11), which characterizes the ratio of the number of infected and closed cases, is due to a certain synchronicity of the increase in the number of infected and recovered with some excess in the growth of recovered, which leads to a low growth rate of the progress indicator values and, as a consequence, a protracted nature of the epidemic in Russia.

Sources of statistical data:

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries

https://www.pravda.com.ua/cdn/covid-19/cpa/

Our materials also:

https://www.facebook.com/MATHMODELCOVID19

https://t.me/mathmodelcovid19

Accuracy of our forecasts:

https://www.facebook.com/ab.alyokhin/posts/154698732839697 (Germany)

https://www.facebook.com/ab.alyokhin/posts/142548897388014 (Spain)

https://www.facebook.com/ab.alyokhin/posts/150095069966730 (Italy)

https://www.facebook.com/ab.alyokhin/posts/148450556797848 (USA)

https://www.facebook.com/ab.alyokhin/posts/154364292873141 (Ukraine)