A mathematical model and forecast for the coronavirus disease COVID-19 in Italy

IMPEER of the NAS of Ukraine
3 min readNov 20, 2020

(A.B. Alyokhin, B.V. Burkynskyi, A.N. Grabovoi, V.A, Dilenko, N.I. Khumarova)

Forecast Monitor

20/11/2020. No F-266.

https://www.facebook.com/ab.alyokhin/posts/200837361559167

The next forecast of the COVID-19 epidemic development in Italy for the period from November 20 to 29 (10-day forecast) and until December 19, 2020 (30-day forecast) was compiled according to statistical data up to and inclusive November 19 required the following changes to model parameters:

- decrease in the spread of coronavirus;

- increased mortality rate;

- increasing the rate of recovery of patients.

While maintaining the current trends in the epidemic development, the projected trajectories of the main indicators of the epidemic have the form shown in the diagrams in Fig. 1–13.

The diagrams in Fig. 1–4 indicate:

- actual trajectories of the main cumulative indicators of the COVID-19 epidemic in Italy for the entire observation period;

- calculated trajectories of these indicators for the same period, as well as for a 10-day forecasting period.

Diagrams Fig. 5–6 differ from the diagrams in Fig. 1–2 only in that they present a 30-day forecast with the current and forecast values of the corresponding indicators at the end of the period.

The diagrams in Fig. 7–10 characterize:

- actual trajectories of changes in the daily indicators of the coronavirus epidemic in Italy for the entire observation period;

- calculated trajectories of these indicators for the same period, as well as a 10-day forecast period;

- boundaries of the confidence intervals (p = 0.3) corresponding to the 10-day forecast.

Diagrams Fig. 11–13 reflect:

- actual trajectories of lethality indicators I (TC), I (CC) and IP progress indicator for the entire observation period;

- calculated trajectories of the indicators for the same period, as well as for a 10-day forecast period.

The most dramatic diagrams of mortality rates (Fig. 2, Fig. 6 and Fig. 8), which show that the number of coronavirus victims may increase if the existing trends persist for a long time.

Sources of statistical data:

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries

Our materials also:

https://www.facebook.com/MATHMODELCOVID19

https://t.me/mathmodelcovid19

Accuracy of our forecasts:

https://www.facebook.com/ab.alyokhin/posts/154698732839697 (Germany)

https://www.facebook.com/ab.alyokhin/posts/142548897388014 (Spain)

https://www.facebook.com/ab.alyokhin/posts/150095069966730 (Italy)

https://www.facebook.com/ab.alyokhin/posts/148450556797848 (USA)

https://www.facebook.com/ab.alyokhin/posts/154364292873141 (Ukraine)

https://www.facebook.com/ab.alyokhin/posts/144983953811175 (France)

https://www.facebook.com/ab.alyokhin/posts/152284093081161 (South Korea)

Publications on case fatality rates and progress indicator

https://www.facebook.com/ab.alyokhin/posts/105684827741088

https://www.facebook.com/ab.alyokhin/posts/106831140959790

https://www.facebook.com/ab.alyokhin/posts/107444734231764

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IMPEER of the NAS of Ukraine

Official page of the state scientific institution Institute of Market Problems and Economic-Ecological Research of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine