A mathematical model and forecast for the coronavirus disease COVID-19 in Germany
(A.B. Alyokhin, B.V. Burkynskyi, A.N. Grabovoi, V.A, Dilenko, N.I. Khumarova)
04/11/2020. No F-254.
The latest forecast of the COVID-19 epidemic development in Germany, containing 10-day and 30-day forecasts of the main epidemic indicators, was published on August 26, 2020 (see https://www.facebook.com/ab.alyokhin/posts/175546274088276 ). To develop this forecast, was used statistics inclusive August 25, 2020.
After the 10-day, 21-day, 30-day, 40-day and 51-day forecast periods, we evaluated the accuracy of this forecast and published its results:
Only after the end of the 51-day forecast period concluded that in terms of trends in the spread of coronavirus, this forecast lost its relevance. In preparing the current forecast, we came conclusion that the trends in the development of the COVID-19 epidemic have changed in other respects.
Particularly, identifying the model, it was necessary to increase the infection spread and mortality rate (there was no need to change the latter when assessing the accuracy of intermediate forecasts), as well as to somewhat reduce the time spent in the disease stage of the recovered (a well-known phenomenon during outbreaks).
The forecast results for the period from November 4 to 13, 2020 are presenting in Diagrams in Fig. 1–14.
Fig. 1–4 are given:
- actual trajectories of the main indicators of the COVID-19 epidemic in Germany for the entire observation period;
- calculated trajectories of these indicators for the same period, as well as for a 10-day forecasting period;
- confidence intervals for a 10-day forecast with a confidence level of 99%.
Fig. 5–6 are analog of Fig. 1–2 and differ from the first ones in the forecast indicated for a 30-day lead period with indication of the actual values at the end of the observation period and the forecasted values of the corresponding indicators at the end of the period. Thus, these diagrams make it possible to judge the scale of the epidemic while maintaining the trends prevailing at the time of the forecast.
Diagrams Fig. 7–10 characterize:
- actual trajectories of changes in the daily indicators of the COVID-19 epidemic in Germany over the entire observation period;
- calculated trajectories of these indicators for the same period, as well as for a 10-day lead period;
Fig. 11–14 reflect:
– confidence intervals for a 10-day forecast with a confidence level of 70%.
- actual trajectories of lethality indicators I (TC), I (CC), the average absolute increase in infected and the IP progress indicator for the entire observation period;
- calculated trajectories of the indicators for the same period, as well as for a 10-day lead period.
In general, forecast calculations indicate that if rapid drastic measures are not taking to curb the spread of the coronavirus, the tendencies of the uncontrolled development of the COVID-19 epidemic in Germany will continue, which will lead to large-scale negative consequences.
Sources of statistical data:
Our materials also:
Accuracy of our forecasts:
Publications on case fatality rates and progress indicator: