A mathematical model and forecast for the coronavirus disease COVID-19 in Germany
(A.B. Alyokhin, B.V. Burkynskyi, A.N. Grabovoi, V.A, Dilenko, N.I. Khumarova)
26.08.2020. No F-157.
Today we publish another forecast for the development of the COVID-19 coronavirus epidemic in Germany with a lead of 10 days for the period from August 26 to September 4, 2020, as well as an approximate forecast for 30 days.
The results of forecast calculations based on statistical data for the entire observation period, including data for August 25, 2020, are showing in the diagrams in Fig. 1–15.
The diagrams in Fig. 1–4 indicate:
- actual trajectories of the main indicators of the coronavirus epidemic in Germany;
- calculated trajectories of these indicators for the same period, as well as for a lead period of 10 days.
Diagrams Fig. 5–6 are analogous to the diagrams in Fig. 1–2 and differ from them and show a long-term forecast (with a lead period of 30 days) indicating the actual (at the time of the forecast) and forecast (at the end of the lead period) values of the corresponding indicators.
In the previous monitor, devoted to the analysis of the latest forecast for Germany, we indicated what the price for the deviation of the actual number of infected from the forecast (about 30 thousand people). In Fig. 5 clearly shows that the continuation of such trends during the forecast month will double this number.
Diagrams Fig. 7–8, which show the actual and calculated trajectories of the statistical reproductive number and the average absolute increase in the infected indicate that the forecast provides for the preservation of the prevailing rates of the epidemic at the time of its compilation.
The diagrams in Fig. 9–12 are given:
- actual trajectories of changes in the daily indicators of the coronavirus epidemic in Germany over the entire observation period;
- calculated trajectories of these indicators for the entire observation period, as well as for a 30-day forecast period.
Diagrams Fig. 13–15 reflect:
- actual trajectories of lethality indicators I (TC) and I (CC), as well as the IP progress indicator for the entire observation period;
- calculated trajectories of these indicators for the entire observation period, as well as for a forecasting period of 30 days.
All of these charts also point to the continuing trends shaped by the second wave of coronavirus spread. Knowing the ability of the government and the population of Germany to subdue the spread of infection, during the forecast period we can only wait for an answer to the question whether Germany will use the existing experience or follow the path of those countries in which the coronavirus released from control.
Sources of statistical data:
Our materials also:
Accuracy of our forecasts:
Publications on case fatality rates and progress indicator